The Art of the Long View 前瞻的艺术

1996-4  

吉林长白山  

Schwartz, Peter  

272  

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What increasingly affects a11 0f US，whether professional planners or individuals preparing for a beffer future，is nof the tangibles of Iife-bottom-line numbers，for insfance-buf the intangibles：our hopes and fears，our beliefs and dreams．Only stories-scenarios-and our ability to visualize different kinds of futures adequately capture these intangibles． In The Arf oF me Long View，now for the fi rsf time in paperback and with the addition of an a11．new User’S Guide，Peter Schwartz outlines the "scenaric"approach f giving you the tools for developing a strategic vision within you r business．

PrefacaIntroduction to the Paperback Edition：The Strategic Conversation--BroadeningThe Long ViewThe Pathfinder’S TaleThe Smith&Hawken Story：The Process of Scenario—BuildingThe Scenario—Building AnimalUncovering the DecisionInformation-·Hunting and··GatheringCreating Scenario Building BlocksAnatomy of a New Driving Force：The Global TeenagerComposing a PlotThe World in 2005：Three ScenariosRehearsing the FutureEpilogue：To My Newborn SonAfterword：The Value of a StrategicConversatiOnUser’S Guide：HOW to Hold aStrategic ConversationAppendix：Steps to Developing ScenariosEndnotesScenario Planning：Select BiographyIndex

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