中国至2050年水资源领域科技发展路线图
2011-8
科学出版社
中国科学院水资源领域战略研究组
123
As one of the eighteen field-specific
reports comprising the comprehensive scope of the strategic general
report of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, this sub-report
addresses long-range planning for developing science and technology
in the field of water science. They each craft a roadmap for their
sphere of development to 2050.In their entirety, the. general and
sub-group reports analyze the evolution and laws governing the
development of science and technology, describe the decisive impact
of science and technology on the modernization process, predict
that the world is on the eve of an impending S&T revolution,
and call for China to be fully prepared for this new round of
S&T advancement. Based on the detailed study of the demands on
S&T innovation in Chinas modernization, the reports draw a
framework for eight basic and strategic systems of socio-economic
development with the support of science and technology, work out
Chinas S&T roadmaps for the relevant eight basic and strategic
systems in line with Chinas reality, further detail S&T
initiatives of strategic importance to Chinas modernization, and
provide S&T decision-makers with comprehensive consultations
for the development of S&T innovation consistent with Chinas
reality. Supported by illustrations and tables of data, the reports
provide researchers, government officials and entrepreneurs with
guidance concerning research directions, the planning process, and
investment. Founded in 1949, the Chinese Academy of Sciences is the
nation's highest academic institution in natural sciences. Its
major responsibilities are to conduct research in basic and
technological sciences, to undertake nationwide integrated surveys
on natural resources and ecological environment, to provide the
country with scientific data and consultations for government's
decision-making, to undertake government-assigned projects with
regard to key S&T problems in the process of socio -economic
development, to initiate personnel training, and to promote Chinas
high-tech enterprises through its active engagement in these
areas.
Abstract
1 Basic Characteristics, Influencing Factors, and Changing Trend of
China's Water Issues
1.1 Basic Characteristics of China's Water Issue
1.2 Impact of Climate Change and Human Factors on Water Issues..
1.3 Development Trend of China's Water Issues
2 Status quo of Water Science & Technology Development in China
and Abroad
2.1 Current State of Water Science & Technology Development
in Foreign Countries
2.2 Current State of Water Science & Technology Development
in China...
2.3 Scientific Puzzles and Key Technologies
3 Comprehensive Roadmap to 2050 for Water Science & Technology
Development
3.1 Study Approach of the Roadmap to 2050 for Water Science &
Technology Development
3.2 Strategic Guideline for Addressing Future Water Crisis in
China
3.3 Comprehensive Roadmap to 2050 for China's Water Science &
Technology Development
4 Foresight of China's Water Science & Technology Development
till Year 2050
4.1 Water Resource Issue
4.2 Water Environment Issue
4.3 Aquatic Ecology Issue
4.4 Water Disaster Issue
4.5 Water Management Issue
5 Thematic Roadmaps to 2050 for China's Water Science &
Technology Development
5.1 Roadmap for Development Goals
5.2 Roadmap for Water Science & Technology Issues
5.3 Roadmap for Key Technologies
5.4 Recommendations on Key Science & Technology Tasks
6 Summary
Main Conclusions and View Points
References
Epilogue
版权页：Main conclusions and view points:1） Nowadays water has become a strategic resource with multiplefunctions and attributes. The water issue in China is becoming increasinglyprominent with its overall status of extreme severity and complexity due tothe interaction between issues in water resource, water environment, waterecology, water disaster, and water management. In general, Chinas water issueis of characteristics of being diverse, in transition, basin specific, and uncertainwith its changing trend is not so optimistic. The water issue will constitute akey bottleneck that constrains Chinas socio-economic development in the longterm.2） Characteristics and changing trend of Chinas water issue. A） Waterresource. The total volume of water use will continue to increase andgradually become stable with corresponding increase of water supply capacityand improvement of water use efficiency though it is difficult to meet theinternational advanced level in the short time. The contradiction between watersupply and demand will exist for a long time with its worsening in some areas.B） Water environment. There is large quantity of many kinds of pollutant. Waterpollution has entered the phase of compounded pollution and eutrophicationwith worsening of rural non-point source pollution, severe undergroundwater pollution in some areas, river basin and regional water issue becomingprominent, and high frequency of water pollution incident. C） Water ecology. Thedegradation trend of water ecological system can hardly be control with furtherworsening in some areas due to severe water and soil loss, overexploitation ofwater resource, heavy water pollution, and the impact of global climate change.D） Flood disaster. The frequency, intensity, and spatial distribution of droughtand flood disasters are showing apparent changes with potential increase ofdamage and the probability of occurring extreme event of flood disaster. Theissue of geo-environmental disaster caused by water resource exploitationhas become increasingly severe. E） Water management. Several departmentsare engaged in the water management at national and large river basin levelswithout efficient coordination mechanism. The conflict between relevant watermanagement regimes （laws and regulations） has been becoming apparent,lacking comprehensive and mutually supportive policies. Economic incentivesare far from complete. The legal status of water related laws and regulations arenot clearly defined.3） Taking into consideration of factors of multi-dimensions, it is estimatedthat the peak of Chinas water consumption will appear at around 2030 when thetotal volume of water consumption in China will be about 650 billion m3/a. Based onthis estimation, the indicative targets of "A Roadmap to 2050 for Chinas WaterScience & Technology Development" were set, including: A） The total volume ofwater supply will be 600 billion m3/a in around 2020; 650 billion m3/a in around2030; 550 billion ma/a in around 2050. B） Water conservancy.
《创新2050•科学技术与中国的未来:中国至2050年水资源领域科技发展路线图(英文版)》：对中国至2050年现代化建设重要科技领域的战略需求，提出了若干核心科学问题与关键技术问题，从我国国情出发设计了相应水资源领域科技发展路线，形成了中国至2050年水资源领域科技发展路线图。Changming Liu等的《Water Science & Technology in China(A Roadmap to2050)》研究的鲜明特色是采用了科技路线图的方法。科技路线图研究有别于一般的规划和技术预见，它包含了满足未来发展需求的科学和技术，以及实现这些目标所选择的路径，描绘环境变化、研究需求、科技发展方向、创新轨迹、技术演进等。以路线图为基础的科技规划，科技目标更加清晰，与市场的结合更加紧密，选择的方向、项目间更有内在联系和更加系统，实现目标的途径更加明确，规划的操作性更强。
