决策的本质
2008-1
北京大学出版社
[美]格雷厄·阿利
416
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这是第二次世界大战后最有影响力的政治学著作之一。《决策的本质》原作以独特的视角审视了冷战时期的关键事件。此经典著作的第二版不仅仅是修订，更是重写：重新解释了古巴导弹危机前后的理论及事件；也融入了肯尼迪录音带及最近解密的苏联文件的信息。第二版提炼了原著中格雷厄姆·阿利森任美国助理国防部长及哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院院长时期的一些评论和观点。同时也有一位新的作者菲利普·泽利科参与了第二版的撰写，他著有十分畅销的评论著作《肯尼迪录音带》(The Kennedy Tapes，Harvard University Press，1 997)。 《决策的本质》(第二版)鲜活地展现了重压之下的决策过程，此书也是唯一一部尝试解决这一经久不衰的问题的著作：人们如何理解政府的举动?
格雷厄姆·阿利森（Graham T.Allison），哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院院长、教授，曾在克林顿政府时期任助理国防部长。
PrefaceIntroduction1 Model I： The Rational ActorA Rigorous Model of ActionA Rational Actor ParadigmThe Classical Model IllustratedClassical Realism. Neorealism (Structural Realism).International Institutionalism. Liberalism. Strategy， War，and Rational Choice.Variants and Uses of the Classical Model2 The Cuban Missile Crisis： A First CutWhy Did the Soviet Union Decide to Place Offensive Missiles inCuba?Hypothesis 1： Cuban Defense. Hypothesis 2： Cold War Politics.Hypothesis 3： Missile Power. Hypothesis 4： Berlin--Win，Trade， or Trap.Why Did the United States Respond to the Missile Deploymentwith a Blockade?Alternative I： Do Nothing. Alternative 2： DiplomaticPressures. Alternative 3： A Secret Approach to Castro.Alternative 4： Invasion. Alternative 5： Air Strike.Alternative 6： Blockade.Why Did the Soviet Union Withdraw the Missiles?3 Model II： Organizational BehaviorOrganizational Logic and EfficiencyOrganizational Logic and Organizational CultureInteractive ComplexityNASA： Hero and GoatOrganizational Behavior Paradigm4 The Cuban Missile Crisis： A Second CutDeployment of Soviet Missiles in CubaThe Soviet Build-up in Detail. OrganizationalImplementation.Imposition of a U.S. Blockade of CubaOrganizational Intelligence. Organizational Options.Organizational Implementation.The Withdrawal of Soviet Missiles from Cuba5 Model III： Governmental PoliticsThe Governmental Politics Model Illustrated __1. Separated Institutions Sharing Power. 2. The Power toPersuade. 3. Bargaining According to the Processes. 4. PowerEquals Impact on Outcome. 5. Intranational andInternational Relations.Group Processes and Their Effects on Choices and Action1. Better Decisions. 2. The "Agency" Problem： Principals，Agents， and Players. 3. Participants： Who Plays? 4. DecisionRules. 5. Framing Issues and Setting Agendas. 6. Groupthink.7. Complexity of ]oint Action.A Governmental Politics Paradigm6 The Cuban Missile Crisis： A Third CutThe Imposition of a Blockade by the United StatesThe Politics of Discovery. The Politics of Choice.Soviet Withdrawal of the Missiles from CubaSoviets Kill an American U-2 Pilot. The President and theChairman. The "Deal"： Resolving the Turkish Problem.The "Deal"： Resolving the Cuban Problem.7 ConclusionSumming Up： Differences in InterpretationSumming Up： Different Answers or Different Questions?Where Do We Go from Here?Index
不愧为全面、有深度、新颖的著作。 ——迪亚娜·沃恩（Diane Vaughan），波士顿大学 优于经典、高于原创的著作。 ——理查德·贝茨（Richard K.Betts），哥伦比亚大学 修订版加强了在理论和历史方面的内容，显求了卓越成效！ ——斯 科特·萨根（Scott Sagan），斯坦福大学
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