北京共识
中港传媒出版社
斯蒂芬·哈尔珀
王鑫,李俊宏 等
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本書主題是「北京共識」，指的是中國以獨裁政權、但又融合市場資本主義的「中國模式」，協助非洲等第三世界國家的發展，對立抗衡於先前美國政治強調新自由主義型態的「華盛頓共識」模式。
我讀的是台灣翻譯的繁體本，覺得作者並非如導言台灣大學朱雲漢教授所說「西方為中心出發」的研究觀點，擔憂中國是否挑戰西方統治世界之霸權地位那麼偏頗。雖然說作者分析中有貶低中國國家資本主義 (State-directed capitalism) 模式的意味，包括他質疑以大量金錢堆積起來的軟實力或霸權，是否為第三世界國家能夠與願意去學習與模仿，中國這樣的發展路徑。但作者的學術嚴謹性是站得住腳的。
首先，他作是以國際政治經濟角度，加上統計資料豐富，個人覺得讀來不悲不亢、邏輯推理合理、並沒有帶任何情緒化字眼，即便作者是美國人。
其次，他並指出一個重點：中國協助第三世界國家是以利益本身為出發點，而不是美國的民主自由理念來協助其發展。手段諸多中國透過投資與貸款，來和協助建設與能源的交換等等。另方面，即便非洲國家統治者等買帳，也是想繼續維持獨裁政權，不是真的喜歡中國這樣的模式，因為中國不會干涉其內政要求民主化。換句話說，第三世界獨裁領袖是從「北京共識」和「華盛頓共識」當中，挑一個最方便的途徑，而不是真心喜歡中國模式。
總之，作者以反省美國在開發中國家的失敗，中國可學習之處，但也質疑「北京共識」的持續性
可惜的是台灣出版社用「北京說了算」的副標題「北京說了算」可能誤導了讀者。
The purpose to write this book is to provide insight look and strategic suggestions to the
U.S. which is necessary as the author mentioned in the preface “If it is not met in the decade
ahead, U.S. will be left in a world unsympathetic to the democratic values and principles.”
A way of division of the context is that it includes the reason of China’s success, the trap
of China behind its stability and prosperity, and how should the U.S. face the challenge which
includes the economic, politic and cultural challenge.
The book firstly explained the threat or rising of China in three perspectives, economic,
politics and culture. In the first half of the book is mainly about the background information and
analysis about China like China’s overseas propaganda including the government’s promotion
about China overseas using large budgets, Taiwan issues including Obama’s “talk and do less
approach” to cross-straits relations.
In terms of the economic threat of China, It also starts with backgrounds information and
analysis, like as China holds a lot of U.S. bonds; China has much interest in keeping the U.S.
economy and the U.S. dollar stable as do America. China’s flow of money with low interest rate
also helps boost the U.S.’s economy. This information is coherent with what was concluded in
the last few chapters, China and U.S. economy is bonded to each other and there is a possibility
of damage to both in terms of protectionism.
The situations in other countries like the Russia and the Middle East was also mentioned
to illustrate the idea of “taxation effect.” These countries charge less tax because they have
rich natural resources to rely on. Less taxation helps relive government from the pressure for
democracy. (Halper, 2010)This perspective is very important as it links to the later explained
situation of the China, people today answers.
The “one fits all policy” of IMF may not suit each country’s situation. And as some country
has to forge certain requirements like the human right, democracy first, the country may take
long time to get the financial aid. While China can support them construction programs without
those requirements, many countries that were turned down by the western countries, now turn
to China.
What’s more, China also “step in” the western “failures.” The smaller, poorer countries
are approached by China with flattery, feting them with honors and receptions they wound
not receive from the west. “China is good at using new-found financial strength to forge new
relationship in the developing world and so change the complexion of international affairs.
Although China’s technology is not good as the western, these small countries believe China
better that China is “willing to share.”
But I personally think that China’s willing to give more than it can earn to the African
countries also has something to do with the culture related to 2,000 years of feudalism. In
history of China, the emperor was willing to give huge fortune to foreign countries just to boost
and brag the prosperity in its own country. I think the custom has some impact on the elites of
ruling who don’t need to ask for permission to show off from its own people who may starve in
the west and lack funding of education in a non-democratic society.
In terms of politic, China is using the exchange of economic benefits to the African countries
and others for more support in the international stage on issues like human rights, Taiwan, Tibet,
and sovereignty. Graphs of details of economic relationship between China and many small
countries were shown. China gains politic support on aspects like “isolating Taiwan,” “Market-
economy status of WTO.”
In terms structure of politic and economic, China is somewhere between the predominantly
capitalistic and predominantly command and control. The author concluded that China’s model
cannot be copied as others lack many factors like the population, legacy of Confucius, high saving
rates, the strong work ethic…
But I personally don’t agree with the author on this point. Actually different countries also
have its superiority. I think in countries like South and East Asia, many countries has similar
advantages.
“Asian democracy has to be expected to look different from the western type – less
permissive, more authoritarian and focusing on the common good rather than the individual
goods.” (Halper, 2010)
This quote was really important as it links the political structure to the culture of east.
I agree with this view a lot. The two thousand years of China’s history definitely rooted in
the culture of China and make it different with the U.S. The author described this context
as “Confucius and Jefferson.”(Page 250) This comparison is not suitable enough. But I can
understand the author as it is hard to find a character in the U.S. culture to compare Confucius
who can equal to Confucius’s impact on ideology, politic structure and daily life of people.
As for the culture, the author described that Chinese is changing from “we generation”
to “me generation” which emphasis on individual interest. “Exceptionism” is also getting
popular. Chinese are complaining certain particular things but not complaining the system itself.
The China’s trap was spotted by the author. This is a very smart conclusion “China has
to grow at a high octane rate to prevent side effects of miracle growth, like deeper unrest or
challenge to central authorities.” (Page 138) The trap is that China’s high-speed growth has
aroused many side effects, but the demand of growth restricts the ability to solve it. This is really
on the point. It answers to many unsolved questions and the reflection of China’s model.
This trap is reflected in many ways, the patriotic education which leads to nationalist,
the angry youth and internet users, and the environment problems. It says that the Chinese
government has been very flexible in control and solving of these issues. But I disagree with
it. I think the government has far more to do in this and this is really a China’s trap where the
Communist Party diggers deeply in.
China has to keep the low price of fuel to keep a low good price which ensures the jobs of
millions like the trackers but stimulated great consumption in fear of social unrest. But on the
other hand, it leads to serious pollution. But Beijing cannot solve it all as it is in a trap.
China’s central government has limited ability to control the behavior of local officers. This
leads to serious problems like bribes, corruption and pollution.
In the last chapters, the author sniffed to the perspective of the U.S. It described the
disputed opinions about China-U.S. relationship in separate groups which “China is coming to us”
and that “China is coming to buy us.”
The fear of China has many outcomes. And the fear of China also dates back to the history in
the U.S. when large wave of Chinese immigrants came to the U.S. and lowered the labor price.
Protectionism is rising and many voices advocating limits on China’s exports existed. The
benefit of increase the value of “yuan” to the U.S. is not that good, according to the author.
He said even if the prices of Chinese export goes up, the factories will simply move to other
countries but not back to the U.S.
As described in beginning, China’s large trade surplus turned into American bonds and low
interest rates, which boost the U.S. economy. A very important reminder to the Washington is
that the U.S. “can’t have it both ways, the Chinese can give us money, or they can give us back
some jobs, but not both.”
In my opinion, it explained the U.S. political trap well as the administrations did not
understand the situation of U.S.-China trade relationships well and put strong insist on “stronger
yuan.”
A very important conclusion drew by the author is that the real challenge of China is not in
economic but in politic and cultural. I think just as the author said, “optimism” produced by many
schools which believes that their system is still the most superior, many Americans may hold
the “optimism” value for more time.
The author quoted that “The most important fact that no one can sensibly try to present
the ‘real story’ or the ‘overall picture’ of this country. It is simply too big and too contradictory.”
(Page 206) But I think the author answers part of the complex answer well, yet I still have some
disagreements.
This book is really beneficial to me as it helps me to understand why the elites of the ruling
policy like “development and stability comes first.” It’s “fact first, conclusion later” writing style
is really what I admire. The bird view of China is really thought-provoking and helps me better
understand China.
Halper, S. A. (2010). The Beijing Consensus: how China's authoritarian model will dominate the
twenty-first century: Basic Books.