企业分析与估价
2005-3
高等教育出版社
方军雄
368
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自教育部在《关于加强高等学校本科教学工作提高教学质量的若干意见》【教高（2001）4号】中提出双语教学的要求后，各地高校相继开设了一系列双语教学课程。这对提高学生的学科和外文水平，开阔国际视野，培养创新型人才起到了重要的作用；一大批教师也逐渐熟悉了外文授课，自身的教学水平和能力得到较大提高，具备国际学术思维的中青年教师脱颖而出。同时，经过近几年的双语教学实践，国外原版教材量大、逻辑不够清晰、疏离中国现实等问题也影响了双语教学的效果。因此，对外版教材进行本土化的精简改编，使之更加适合我国的双语教学已提上教材建设日程。 为了满足高等学校经济管理类双语课程本土化教学的需要，在教育部高等教育司的指导和支持下，高等教育出版社同Thomson Leaming等国外著名出版公司通力合作，在国内首次推出了金融、会计、经济学等专业的英文原版改编教材。本套教材的遴选、改编和出版严格遵循了以下几个原则： 1．择优选取权威的新版本。在各专业选书论证会上，我们要求入选改编的教材不仅是在国际上多次再版的经典之作的最新版本，而且是近年来已在国内被试用的优秀教材。 2．改编后的教材力求内容规范简明，逻辑更加清晰，语言原汁原味，适合中国的双语教学。选择的改编人既熟悉原版教材内容又具有本书或本门课程双语教学的经验；在改编过程中，高等教育出版社组织了知名专家学者召开了数次改编和审稿会议，改编稿征求了众多教师的意见。 3．改编后的教材配有较丰富的辅助教学支持资源，教师可在网上免费获取。同时，改编后的教材厚度适中，定价标准较低。 由于原作者所处国家的政治、经济和文化背景等与我国不同，对书中所持观点，敬请广大读者在阅读过程中注意加以分析和鉴别。 此次英文改编教材的出版，得到了很多专家学者的支持和帮助，在此深表谢意！我们期待这批英文改编教材的出版能对我国经济管理类专业的教学能有所帮助，欢迎广大读者给我们提出宝贵的意见和建议。
《企业分析与估价》的框架结构独具特色，不同于常见的“报表结构介绍一报表科目分析一比率分析”的体例安排，而是跳出会计数字的迷宫，从最原初的企业性质开始阐述财务报表与企业商业活动之间的关系，然后逐步讲解战略分析、会计政策分析和财务报表分析。全书包括三个部分：第一部分概要地介绍了“借助财务报表进行商业分析和评估的框架”，第二部分具体展开描述了“商业分析和评估工具”，第三部分是前两部分（框架和工具）在实务领域的应用，包括权益证券的价值评估、信用分析和破产危机预测、兼并收购的定价和融资等。 《企业分析与估价》理论与实务相结合的综合训练对身处以“3C（change、competition、customerization）”为特征的信息经济时代的学生很有益处，非常适合作为本科、会计学硕士和MBA的高级会计课程教材。
Krishna G．Palepu，美国哈佛商学院会计和控制学系首席教授，工商管理教授，其研究领域包括公司兼并收购的效率、公司财务政策、投资者沟通程序等。Palepu教授曾获得1997年度wildman奖，美国会计学会1999年度会计人物杰出贡献奖。 Paul M．Healy，美国哈佛商学院工商管理教授，其研究领域包括公司披露政策及其对资本成本的影响、兼并收购的效率、盈余管理和管理层激励。Healy教授曾获得美国会计学会1990年度和1999年度会计人物杰出贡献奖，1997年度Wildman奖。 victor L．Bernard，美国密歇根大学佩顿会计研究中心会计学教授，其研究领域包括公司财务报告、财务报表分析、财务经济学等。Bernarcl教授曾获得美国会计学会1991年度、1993年度和1999年度会计人物杰出贡献奖、1997年度Wildman奖。Bernard教授不幸于1995年辞世。 改编及审校者简介 方军雄，复旦大学管理学院会计学讲师，师从于李若山教授，2002年获得管理学博士学位，CPA，研究方向为会计与资本市场实证研究。 洪剑峭，复旦大学管理学院会计学副教授，副系主任，师从于谷超豪院士，1994年获得数学博士学位。研究领域包括会计与资本市场实证研究、解析会计研究。
Part 1 FRAMEWORKA Framework for Business Analysis and Valuation UsingFinancial StatementsThe Role of Financial Reporting in Capital MarketsFrom Business Activities to Financial StatementsFrom Financial Statements to Business AnalysisSummaryDiscussion QuestionsPart 2 BUSINESS ANALYSIS AND VALUATION TOOLS Strategy AnalysisIndustry AnalysisApplying Industry Analysis: The Personal Computer IndustryCompetitive Strategy AnalysisCorporate Strategy AnalysisSummaryDiscussion QuestionsOverview of Accounting AnalysisThe Institutional Framework for Financial ReportingFactors Influencing Accounting QualitySteps in Doing Accounting AnalysisAccounting Analysis PitfallsValue of Accounting Data and Accounting AnalysisSummaryDiscussion QuestionsImplementing Accounting AnalysisRecasting Financial StatementsAsset DistortionsOverstated AssetsUnderstated AssetsLiability DistortionsEquity DistortionsSummaryDiscussion QuestionsAppendix: Recasting Financial Statements Into Standardized TemplatesFinancial AnalysisRatio AnalysisCash Flow AnalysisSummaryDiscussion QuestionsAppendix: Part A: Nordstrom, Inc. Financial StatementsPart B: The TJX Companies, Inc. Financial StatementsProspective Analysis: ForecastingRelation of Forecasting to Other AnalysesThe Techniques of ForecastingMaking ForecastsSensitivity AnalysisSummaryDiscussion QuestionsAppendix: The Behavior of Components of ROEProspective Analysis: Valuation Theory and ConceptsDefining Value for ShareholdersThe Discounted Abnormal Earnings Valuation MethodValuation Using Price MultiplesShortcut Forms of Earnings-Based ValuationThe Discounted Cash Flow ModelComparing Valuation MethodsSummaryDiscussion QuestionsAppendix: Reconciling the Discounted Dividends and Discounted Abnormal Earnings ModelsProspective Analysis: Valuation ImplementationDetailed Forecasts of PerformanceComputing a Discount RateTerminal ValuesComputing Estimated ValuesSummaryDiscussion QuestionsPart 3 BUSINESS ANALYSIS AND VALUATION APPLICATIONSEquity Security AnlysisInvestor ObjectivesEquity Security Analysis and Market EfficiencyApproaches to Fund Management and Securities AnalysisThe Process of a Comprehensive Security AnalysisPerformance of Security Analysts and Fund ManagersSummaryDiscussion QuestionsCredit Analysis and Distress PredictionThe Market for CreditThe Credit Analysis ProcessFinancial Statement Analysis and Public DebtPrediction of Distress and TurnaroundSummaryDiscussion QuestionsMergers and AcquisitionsMotivation for Merger or AcquisitionAcquisition PricingAcquisition FinancingAcquisition OutcomeSummaryDiscussion QuestionsCorporate Financing PoliciesFactors That Determine Firms Debt PoliciesThe Optimal Long-Term Mix of Debt and EquityThe Financing of New ProjectsFactors That Determine Dividend PoliciesSummary Discussion QuestionsCommunication and GovernanceGovernance OverviewManagement Communication with InvestorsCommunication Through Financial ReportingOther Forms of Communicating with InvestorsAuditor AnalysisAudit Committee ReviewsSummaryDiscussion QuestionsIndex
Forecasting represents the first step of prospective analysis and serves to summarize the for-ward-looking view that emanates from business strategy analysis, accounting analysis, andfinancial analysis. Although not every financial statement analysis is accompanied by suchan explicit summarization of a view of the future, forecasting is still a key tool for manag-ers, consultants, security analysts, investment bankers, commercial bankers and other creditanalysts, and others. The best approach to forecasting future performance is to do it comprehensively——pro-ducing not only an earnings forecast but a forecast of cash flows and the balance sheet aswell. Such a comprehensive approach provides a guard against internal inconsistenciesand unrealistic implicit assumptions. The approach described here involves line-by-lineanalysis, so as to recognize that different items on the income statement and balance sheetare influenced by different drivers. Nevertheless, it remains the case that a few key pro-jections——such as sales growth and profit margin——usually drive most of the projectednumbers. The forecasting process should be embedded in an understanding of how variousfinancial statistics tend to behave on average, and what might cause a firm to deviate fromthat average. Absent detailed information to the contrary, one would expect sales and earn-ings numbers to persist at their current levels, adjusted for overall trends of recent years.However, rates of return on investment （ROEs） tend, over several years, to move fromabnormal to normal levels——-close to the cost of equity capital——as the forces of competi-tion come into play. Profit margins also tend to shift to normal levels, but for this statistic"normal" varies widely across firms and industries, depending on the levels of asset turn-over and leverage. Some firms are capable of creating barriers to entry that enable them tofight these tendencies toward normal returns, even for many years, but such firms are theunusual cases. For some purposes, including short-term planning and security analysis, forecasts forquarterly periods are desirable. One important feature of quarterly data is seasonality; atleast some seasonality exists in the sales and earnings data of nearly every industry. Anunderstanding of a firms within-year peaks and valleys is a necessary ingredient of a goodforecast of performance on a quarterly basis. There are a variety of contexts （including but not limited to security analysis） where theforecast is usefully summarized in the form of an estimate of the firms value——an estimatethat, after all, can be viewed as the best attempt to reflect in a single summary statistic themanagers or analysts view of the firms prospects. That process of converting a forecastinto a value estimate is labeled valuation. It is to that topic that we turn in the followingchapter.
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当当应该把封面加上，这本书是英文版的，绝对好书！