(互联网经济
2002-12
HarperCollins Publishers
John Cassidy
372
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When Vannevar Bush, Franklin D. Roosevelt's chief scientific adviser, sat down in 1945 to write a magazine article about the future, he had no idea what he was beginning. Bush's vision of a desktop computer that would contain all of human knowledge inspired the scientists who built the Internet. In the early 1990s, when a British computer programmer devised the World Wide Web and an Illinois student invented an easy-to-use Web browser, the Internet was transformed from a scientific curiosity into the biggest gold rush since the Klondike. In Dot.con, John Cassidy, one of the country's leading financial journalists and a staff writer at the New Yorker, relates the stories of Netscape, Yahoo!, America Online, Amazon.com, and other Internet companies, large and small. In a lively and entertaining narrative, Cassidy traces the rise of Internet stocks and the development of a populist stock market culture to the end of the Cold War. He shows how an unscrupulous alliance of entrepreneurs such as Jeff Bezos, venture capitalists such as John Doerr, stock analysts such as Mary Meeker, and investment bankers such as Frank Quattrone helped turn an exciting technological development into an unstable and dangerous speculative bubble. Cassidy doesn't restrict his attention to Silicon Valley and Wall Street. He demonstrates how many prominent journalists and policy makers helped to expand and prolong the bubble, particularly Alan Greenspan, the chairman of the Federal Reserve. But in the end, Cassidy concludes, responsibility for the Internet boom and bust cannot be placed on any one individual. It was a nationwide epizootic that involved tens of millions of Americans. And now that it is over, the country as a whole is paying a heavy price for succumbing to greed and wishful thinking. An artful blend of storytelling, history, and economics, Dot.con provides the first complete and authoritative account of the biggest financial story of the modern era.
prologuechapter 1 From memex to world wide webchapter 2 popular capitalismchapter 3 information superhighwaychapter 4 netscapechapter 5 the stock marketchapter 6 ipochapter 7 yahoo!chapter 8 battle for the’netchapter 9 irrational exuberancechapter 10 amazon．cornchapter 11 the new economychapter 12 a media bubblechapter 13 greenspan’S green lightchapter 14 euphoriachapter 15 queen of the’netchapter 16 trading nationchapter 17 web dreamschapter 18 warning signschapter 19 the Fed stHkeschapter 20 crashchapter 21 dead dotcomsepiloguenotesappendixindex
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【非理性的繁荣】
一般情况下，低市盈率年份之后的收益率要高，而高市盈率年份之后的收益率则低甚或是负数。 □在低市盈率的时候入市，高市盈率出市
建议长期投资者在进行个人投资时应该“牛市出熊市进”，比如现在正值故事高涨，就不是投资的好时机。
当股息偏低时，便不是投资的好时机，历史事实证明了这种判断是简明而聪明的。 □股息水平
反馈理论的一个最流行的说法是建立在适应性预期的基础上的：
发生反馈是由于过去的价格增长产生了对价格进一步增长的预期；
反馈理论的另一种说法认为：
发生反馈是由于过去的价格增长使投资者信心增加。
通常认为这种反馈主要是对价格持续增长模式的反应，而不是对价格突然增长的反应。 □预期的增长也许会超过实际能实现的增长，所以，
需要鉴别哪些增长是真实的，可以持续的；哪些是被哄抬的。
投资者对股票的需求也不可能永远扩大，当这种需求停止时，价格增长也会停止。
根据预期反馈理论的流行说法，在需求停止时，我们就会看到股市的下降，即泡沫的破灭，因为投资者认为股市不会继续上涨，因此没有理由继续持股。然而，反馈理论的其他说法并没有提及泡沫的破灭，因为他们没有对持续增长价格作出预测。 □需求决定论
负泡沫 □对市场不看好的预期
反馈环性质的变化才是崩盘的原因，而不是崩盘是公布的工作新闻报道。
真正理性的话，需要对宏观经济增长的长期预期持续关注。 □关注市场长期基本面
投资者总是努力去做正确的事情，但是无法把握自己行为的准确性时，有限的能力和特定的行为模式就会决定他们的行为。
人们往往寻找一些简单的原因来作为决策的理由，并因此导致了决策的偏向。 □人们总是因为一个简单的理由就作出重大的决定。
收益增长和价格增长的联系一点也不紧密。 □